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23:00
Jul 02
André Jakurski Sócio-fundador do Pactual e da JGP Market Makers
Avoid long sovereign bonds, real losses ahead
The explosive growth of US government debt (from $5 trillion in 2000 to $40 trillion today) combined with unfavorable demographics will cause sustained real losses for long-duration sovereign bondholders. Since 2009, fixed income investors have lost substantial wealth as interest rates were kept artificially low and then adjusted upward. Even inflation-linked bonds like TIPS and NTN-B failed to preserve purchasing power because real yields rose. Given that governments cannot easily allow a deep recession without risking a debt crisis, they are trapped, and the trend of real wealth destruction in sovereign bonds is set to continue. Therefore, investors should avoid or drastically reduce exposure to US 10-year Treasuries, TIPS, and Brazilian NTN-B bonds to protect their portfolios.
US TIPS
HIGH
14:39
Jul 02
Rick Rieder CIO of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock Bloomberg Markets
Watch US real rates for entry
US real rates are approaching attractive levels as inflation expectations decline, but current positioning is still cautious; worth monitoring for entry.
US TIPS
LOW

About US TIPS Analyst Coverage

Buzzberg tracks US TIPS across 2 sources. 0 bullish vs 0 bearish calls from 2 analysts. Sentiment: evenly split. 2 total trade ideas tracked. Latest voices: André Jakurski, Rick Rieder.